Aramco, Rongsheng Explore New Opportunities in Saudi Arabia and China

Pictured, from left, at the cooperation framework agreement signing ceremony are Xiang Jiongjiong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Vice Chairman and Rongsheng Petrochemical CEO; Li Shuirong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Chairman; Wang Hao, Zhejiang Provincial Government Governor; Amin H. Nasser, Aramco President & CEO; Mohammed Y. Al Qahtani, Aramco Downstream President; and Faisal M. Al Faqeer, Aramco Senior Vice President of In Kingdom Liquids to Chemicals Development. Photo: Aramco
Pictured, from left, at the cooperation framework agreement signing ceremony are Xiang Jiongjiong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Vice Chairman and Rongsheng Petrochemical CEO; Li Shuirong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Chairman; Wang Hao, Zhejiang Provincial Government Governor; Amin H. Nasser, Aramco President & CEO; Mohammed Y. Al Qahtani, Aramco Downstream President; and Faisal M. Al Faqeer, Aramco Senior Vice President of In Kingdom Liquids to Chemicals Development. Photo: Aramco
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Aramco, Rongsheng Explore New Opportunities in Saudi Arabia and China

Pictured, from left, at the cooperation framework agreement signing ceremony are Xiang Jiongjiong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Vice Chairman and Rongsheng Petrochemical CEO; Li Shuirong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Chairman; Wang Hao, Zhejiang Provincial Government Governor; Amin H. Nasser, Aramco President & CEO; Mohammed Y. Al Qahtani, Aramco Downstream President; and Faisal M. Al Faqeer, Aramco Senior Vice President of In Kingdom Liquids to Chemicals Development. Photo: Aramco
Pictured, from left, at the cooperation framework agreement signing ceremony are Xiang Jiongjiong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Vice Chairman and Rongsheng Petrochemical CEO; Li Shuirong, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group Chairman; Wang Hao, Zhejiang Provincial Government Governor; Amin H. Nasser, Aramco President & CEO; Mohammed Y. Al Qahtani, Aramco Downstream President; and Faisal M. Al Faqeer, Aramco Senior Vice President of In Kingdom Liquids to Chemicals Development. Photo: Aramco

Aramco is exploring the formation of a joint venture in the Saudi Aramco Jubail Refinery Company (“SASREF”) with Chinese partner Rongsheng Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (“Rongsheng”) and significant investments in the Saudi and Chinese petrochemical sectors, in partnership with Rongsheng, the Saudi oil firm said in a statement on Saturday.

The Saudi oil company recently signed a cooperation framework agreement that envisions Rongsheng’s potential acquisition of a 50% stake in SASREF. The agreement also lays the groundwork for the development of a liquids-to-chemicals expansion project at SASREF, in addition to Aramco’s potential acquisition of a 50% stake in Rongsheng affiliate Ningbo Zhongjin Petrochemical Co. Ltd. (ZJPC) and participation in ZJPC’s expansion project, said the statement.

“These discussions highlight our ambition to advance our liquids-to-chemicals strategy with strategic partner Rongsheng, both in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and China. In building on our existing relationship, we aim to advance our expansion in a key geography and attract new investment to the Saudi downstream sector,” said Aramco Downstream President Mohammed Y. Al Qahtani.

In July 2023, Aramco acquired a 10% interest in Rongsheng through its subsidiary Aramco Overseas Company BV, based in the Netherlands. Rongsheng in turn owns a 100% equity interest in ZJPC, which operates an aromatics production complex and has an interest in a joint venture that produces purified terephthalic acid.



Riyadh Explores Agricultural Investment Opportunities in Africa

The Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture during his visit to Nigeria. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture during his visit to Nigeria. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Riyadh Explores Agricultural Investment Opportunities in Africa

The Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture during his visit to Nigeria. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture during his visit to Nigeria. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia recently concluded agreements with a number of African countries with the aim to achieve sustainable agricultural development and promote food security.

The moves come at a time when global grain supplies are expected to be lower next season, paving the way for higher agricultural commodity prices, while economies are still suffering from deep-rooted inflation, according to US outlooks.

Saudi-African relations have witnessed remarkable development during the recent period. The Kingdom and several African countries have agreed to support and develop joint bilateral relations in all fields, especially the agricultural sector.

At the end of 2023, the Kingdom hosted the Saudi-African Summit to boost joint cooperation and mutual strategic partnership.

Saudi Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture, Eng. Abdul Rahman Al-Fadhli carried out last week a visit to Senegal, the Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Ghana where he explored future investment opportunities and prospects for cooperation.

Al-Fadhli agreed with Senegalese Prime Minister Ousman Sonko to strengthen and develop bilateral relations in the fields of agriculture, food security, fisheries and livestock.

He also discussed with Ivorian Minister of State for Agriculture and Rural Development Kobenan Kouassi Adjoumani aspects of joint cooperation in the fields of agricultural investment, livestock and food security to bolster future investment opportunities.

The Saudi minister held an extensive meeting with representatives of the Ivorian private sector to learn about the most prominent companies and their products, in addition to identifying agricultural investment opportunities that benefit both countries.

In addition, Al-Fadhli reviewed with Nigerian Minister of Agriculture and Food Security Abubakar Kyari investment opportunities in the sector, and means to increase the prospects for joint trade and economic cooperation.

The meeting discussed aspects of joint cooperation between the two countries in all fields, with a focus on enhancing mutual work in agriculture and food security, and reviewing the available investment opportunities, taking advantage of their natural wealth, including the vast area and rich natural diversity, in addition to agricultural resources and food products.

Ghana was the last leg in the African tour, where Al-Fadhli discussed aspects of joint cooperation with Minister of Food and Agriculture Bryan Acheampong and reviewed investment opportunities in the field of agriculture, livestock, and food manufacturing.

The officials agreed to facilitate the work of investors to achieve common interests and increase the volume of economic partnerships.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Economic and Academic Analyst at King Faisal University, Dr. Mohammad Al-Qahtani said a number of African states, including, Senegal, Nigeria, Ghana, and the Ivory Coast, are witnessing remarkable economic growth.

This has encouraged Saudi authorities to strengthen bilateral cooperation with them and to benefit from the Kingdom’s strategic location that forms a bridge between three continents and plays a major role in the global logistics process, he underlined.

Al-Qahtani added that Saudi Arabia will act as a logistical gateway to the most important African countries, stressing the importance of increasing investments in agriculture, especially strategic commodities, such as cocoa and coffee, which will boost exports and the global trade movement.

He stated that the Kingdom has great research expertise in the field of agriculture and food, expecting that it will harness agricultural research centers to explore new crops that will help African countries and the region achieve food security.

Saudi Arabia is taking advantage of its strategic location through its many ports by investing in the process of digitization and logistical intelligence, which makes it at the top of the global competition to connect the East and the West, the analyst remarked.

Business development advisor and academic Dr. Saleh Al-Turki explained that the recent tour conducted by Minister Al-Fadhli is an important step to benefit from the agreements concluded by Saudi Arabia with some African states that participated in the African Summit at the end of 2023.

He added that the agreements concluded during the visit will help in achieving sustainable agricultural development in Saudi Arabia.

Many Saudi companies and institutions specialized in the field of food security will benefit from these partnerships, Al-Turki stressed, pointing to the important role of scientific research and training in national universities, such as King Faisal University, in supervising food security programs.


Saudi Arabia, UK Boost Strategic Partnership Digital Govt. Sector

Photo by SPA
Photo by SPA
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Saudi Arabia, UK Boost Strategic Partnership Digital Govt. Sector

Photo by SPA
Photo by SPA

Saudi Governor of the Digital Government Authority (DGA) and Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Digital Cooperation Organization (DCO), Eng. Ahmed Mohammed Al-Suwaiyan, concluded his visit to the United Kingdom, during which he met with several leaders and officials from both the public and private sectors.

The meetings eyed to enhance cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the UK in the field of the digital economy.
During the visit, the Governor participated in the Annual 21st Middle East and North Africa Conference, where he delivered a keynote speech showcasing Saudi Arabia's leading model in digital transformation. He highlighted the Kingdom's best practices and success stories in the field of digital government, with the aim of leveraging experiences in this promising domain, SPA reported.
Eng. Al-Suwaiyan also held meetings with the Parliamentary Secretary for the British Cabinet Office, Alex Burghart; the British Minister for Data and Digital Infrastructure, Julia Lopez; and the Minister for Technology and the Digital Economy, Saqib Bhatti, along with several officials from governmental bodies and CEOs of major companies. The meetings discussed means of expanding the strategic partnership in the field of digital government between the two countries.


China's Economy Signals Demand Recovery

Most China watchers say Beijing still has its work cut out - Photo by EPA
Most China watchers say Beijing still has its work cut out - Photo by EPA
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China's Economy Signals Demand Recovery

Most China watchers say Beijing still has its work cut out - Photo by EPA
Most China watchers say Beijing still has its work cut out - Photo by EPA

China's consumer prices rose for a third straight month in April, while producer prices extended declines, signalling an improvement in domestic demand, as Beijing navigates challenges in its bid to shore up a shaky economy.

The closely watched numbers follow better-than-expected imports data for April, suggesting a flurry of policy support measures over the past several months may be helping consumer confidence.

Consumer prices edged up 0.3% in April from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Saturday, versus a rise of 0.1% in March and a Reuters poll forecast for an increase of 0.2%.

"Strip out food and energy prices, and the consumer inflation data suggests a comeback in demand, especially in services," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters reported.

Core inflation, excluding volatile food and fuel prices, grew 0.7% in April, up from 0.6% in March.

Overall the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% from the previous month, beating a forecast fall of 0.1% in the poll and reversing a drop of 1% in March.

Most China watchers say Beijing still has its work cut out, though, and the momentum might prove unsustainable, as official surveys show cooling factory and services activity, while a lengthy housing crisis shows no sign of easing, boosting the case for more policy support.

"Price hikes by utility companies is another potential driver," Xu added.

"The fiscal strains some local governments are facing affect the subsidies they receive, which could be forcing them to pass the extra cost on to households to make ends meet."

Officials are grappling with municipal debt of $13 trillion, and the State Council, or cabinet, has told heavily indebted local governments to delay or halt some state-funded infrastructure projects.

"The prices data suggests that domestic demand is recovering, supply and demand continues to improve and the outlook for domestic demand and price recovery is optimistic," said Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank.

"However, consumer prices remain low and the industrial manufacturing sector is still under pressure, reflecting insufficient effective demand and that recovery in the sector is still not sufficiently balanced."

The producer price index (PPI) dropped 2.5% in April from a year earlier, easing from a slide of 2.8% the previous month but extending a 1-1/2-year-long stretch of declines.

On Friday, China's central bank said it would make monetary policy flexible, precise and effective and promote a moderate recovery in consumer prices to consolidate economic recovery.

The comments in a quarterly monetary policy report follow remarks in April by the Politburo, a top-decision making body of the ruling Communist Party, that China will use policy tools, such as banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates, to prop up growth.

"Considering the judgement of the Politburo meeting that 'effective demand is still insufficient...' the policy support should take advantage of the momentum, by strengthening expectation management and creating more consumption scenarios," said Bruce Pang, chief economist China at Jones Lang LaSalle.

Many analysts say China's economic growth target of about 5% in 2024 will be a challenge to achieve without further policy support.


Saudi Arabia, Ghana Strengthen Collaboration in Agriculture, Food Security

Alfadley's tour of Africa included visits to Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana - SPA
Alfadley's tour of Africa included visits to Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana - SPA
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Saudi Arabia, Ghana Strengthen Collaboration in Agriculture, Food Security

Alfadley's tour of Africa included visits to Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana - SPA
Alfadley's tour of Africa included visits to Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana - SPA

Saudi Minister of Environment, Water, and Agriculture Eng. Abdulrahman Alfadley and Minister of Food and Agriculture of Ghana Dr. Bryan Acheampong reached an agreement during Alfadley's tour of Africa, strengthening relations and increasing investment opportunities in agriculture, food security, fisheries, and livestock.
The two officials agreed to work together to ease the process of investing in their countries, to serve the common interest, and expand the scope of economic partnership, SPA reported.
Alfadley's tour of Africa included visits to Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and Ghana, and is part of efforts to implement the outcomes of the recent Saudi-African Summit.
The tour aims to strengthen ties and collaboration between Saudi Arabia and African states.


Iraq Launches Oil, Gas Licensing Round for 29 Projects

FILE PHOTO: Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani speaks during a press conference at Iraq's Majnoon oil field near Basra, Iraq, May 12, 2023. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani speaks during a press conference at Iraq's Majnoon oil field near Basra, Iraq, May 12, 2023. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
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Iraq Launches Oil, Gas Licensing Round for 29 Projects

FILE PHOTO: Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani speaks during a press conference at Iraq's Majnoon oil field near Basra, Iraq, May 12, 2023. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani speaks during a press conference at Iraq's Majnoon oil field near Basra, Iraq, May 12, 2023. REUTERS/Essam Al-Sudani/File Photo

Iraq is holding an oil and gas licensing round for 29 projects in a bid to develop its huge gas reservoirs to help power the country and lure billions of dollars in investments.
The exploration blocks are spread across 12 governorates in mostly central and southern Iraq and for the first time include an offshore exploration block in Iraq's Arab Gulf waters.
Iraq last held a licensing round, its fifth, in 2018, Reuters reported.
Saturday's "fifth plus" licensing round includes many projects left over from that round plus a new sixth round with 14 projects, Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani said in opening remarks.
More than 20 companies pre-qualified for Saturday's round, including European, Chinese, Arab and Iraqi groups but no US oil majors.
Iraq's oil production capacity has grown from 3 million to around 5 million barrels per day (bpd) in recent years, but the departure of giants such as Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell Plc from a number of projects due to poor returns means future growth is uncertain.
Developments have also slowed due to growing investor focus on environmental, social and governance criteria.


Saudi Tourism Secures Over 40 New Partnerships at Arabian Travel Market

STA secured over 40 agreements, including collaborations with Flyadeal, Noon, and China i2i Group - SPA
STA secured over 40 agreements, including collaborations with Flyadeal, Noon, and China i2i Group - SPA
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Saudi Tourism Secures Over 40 New Partnerships at Arabian Travel Market

STA secured over 40 agreements, including collaborations with Flyadeal, Noon, and China i2i Group - SPA
STA secured over 40 agreements, including collaborations with Flyadeal, Noon, and China i2i Group - SPA

The Saudi Tourism Authority (STA) celebrated its participation at the Arabian Travel Market (ATM) this week, signing major new agreements with trade partners and successfully showcasing unique summer destinations and products, SPA reported.

STA secured over 40 agreements, including collaborations with Flyadeal, Noon, and China i2i Group as well as major strategic partnerships with Saudia and Riyadh Air. These collaborations mark a new stage of growth for the Kingdom and will boost the country’s tourism sector and solidify Saudi Arabia’s position as a leading global tourism destination with unique year-round experiences for visitors.
The Saudi delegation was led by STA chief executive and board member Fahd Hamidaddin, who was joined by over 70 Saudi tourism ecosystem leaders and key partners including destination management companies, hotels, and airlines.
“As we conclude our participation at ATM 2024, I’m filled with pride and optimism for the future of tourism in Saudi. Each partnership, each conversation, each meeting, has reaffirmed our belief that Saudi has an offer like no other,” Hamidaddin said.
“With 72 partners from the tourism ecosystem in attendance, we secured partnerships and made commitments which will further increase our connectivity and ensure the world is aware of our dynamic and diverse destinations,” the STA chief said.
“We leave ATM with an ongoing promise to collaborate regionally, creating a greater tourism economy and elevating the GCC into a global magnet for international travelers,” Hamidaddin added.


US Plans to Impose Major New Tariffs on EVs, other Chinese Green Energy Imports

 A worker checks solar panels at a factory in Jiujiang in central China’s Jiangxi province on March 16, 2018. The Biden administration is planning to announce new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. (Chinatopix via AP)
A worker checks solar panels at a factory in Jiujiang in central China’s Jiangxi province on March 16, 2018. The Biden administration is planning to announce new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. (Chinatopix via AP)
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US Plans to Impose Major New Tariffs on EVs, other Chinese Green Energy Imports

 A worker checks solar panels at a factory in Jiujiang in central China’s Jiangxi province on March 16, 2018. The Biden administration is planning to announce new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. (Chinatopix via AP)
A worker checks solar panels at a factory in Jiujiang in central China’s Jiangxi province on March 16, 2018. The Biden administration is planning to announce new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China. (Chinatopix via AP)

The Biden administration plans to impose major new tariffs on electric vehicles, semiconductors, solar equipment and medical supplies imported from China, according to a US official and another person familiar with the plan.

Tariffs on electric vehicles, in particular, could quadruple — from the existing 25% to 100%. The plan was described by the people on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to provide details ahead of a formal announcement.

The tariffs, expected to be announced Tuesday, come as officials across the Democratic administration have expressed frustration over China's manufacturing “overcapacity” of EVs and other products that they say pose a threat to US jobs and national security.

Industrialized nations including the United States and its European allies fear a wave of low-priced Chinese exports will overwhelm domestic manufacturing.

According to The AP, on the US side, there is particular concern that China’s green energy products will undermine massive climate-friendly investments made through the Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act that President Joe Biden signed into law in August 2022.

The additional tariffs also carry some political heft going into the November presidential election. Both Biden and his presumptive Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump, have told voters that they'll be tough on China, the world's second largest economy after the United States and an emerging geopolitical rival.

Biden has defined his policy as “competition with China, not conflict.” He has embraced an industrial strategy that has used government financial support to pull in private investment in new factories and advanced technology, while limiting the selling of computer chips and other equipment to China.

Trump has floated the idea of levying massive tariffs against China in order to reduce the US trade deficit with that country. He has repeatedly claimed that Biden's support for EVs would ultimately cause American factory jobs to go to China.

Tuesday's announcement is expected to keep in place some tariffs that were imposed during Trump's administration, covering about $360 billion in Chinese goods. The new tax on imports would add products such as Chinese syringes and solar equipment.

There is the risk that tariffs could lead to a broader trade conflict between the two countries as they respond to each other's moves. China is seeking to create a technological edge and move up the economic chain.

There are some indications that China is cooling its production of lithium-ion batteries used in EVs, cell phones and other consumer electronics at a time when it is facing increasing criticism from the West.


European Companies are Less Upbeat About China’s Vast Market as its Economy Slows

President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
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European Companies are Less Upbeat About China’s Vast Market as its Economy Slows

President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)
President of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China Jens Eskelund speaks during a press conference for European Chamber in Beijing, China, Friday, May 10, 2024. China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to grow their businesses in the world’s second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies has found. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) (Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)

China is actively seeking foreign investment to boost its slowing growth, but that very sluggishness is weighing on company plans to expand their businesses in the world's second largest economy, an annual survey of more than 500 European companies found, The AP reported.

The slowing economy is now the dominant concern of respondents to the European Chamber of Commerce in China survey, which was released Friday. China still ranks high as a place to invest, but the share of companies considering an expansion of their operations in the country this year fell to 42%, the lowest ever recorded.

“The business outlook is the most pessimistic yet, with companies’ expectations for growth and profitability taking a hit, and concerns about competition intensifying,” the chamber said in its business confidence survey.

The economic worries are layered on top of long-running complaints about regulations and practices that companies say favor their Chinese competitors or are unclear, creating uncertainty for them and their employees. Others including the American Chamber in China have expressed similar concerns.

Those older issues are now compounded by the weaker economy, eroding business confidence, said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Chamber.

“Companies are beginning to realize that some of these pressures that we have seen in the local market, whether it’s competition, whether it’s low demand, that they are taking on perhaps a more permanent nature,” he told journalists earlier this week. “And that is something that is beginning to impact investment decisions and the way they go about thinking about development of the local market.”

The government is launching programs to boost consumer spending but confidence remains low because of a weak job market. Economic growth came in at a faster-than-expected 5.3% annual pace in the first three months of the year, but much of the GDP growth came from government spending on infrastructure and investment in factories and equipment.

Massive investment in industries such as solar power panels and electric cars has created intense price competition, squeezing profits. More than a third of the survey respondents said they have observed overcapacity in their industry. For 15% of the companies, their China operations finished 2023 in the red. Foreign companies need growth in domestic demand, not manufacturing capacity, Eskelund said.

“What is important to foreign companies is not necessarily sort of a headline GDP number — 5.3%, whatever — but the composition of GDP,” he said.

Close to 40% of companies said they have moved or are considering moving future investments out of China. Southeast Asia and Europe are the biggest beneficiaries, followed by India and North America. Nearly 60% said they are sticking with their investment plans for China, but that was down from last year.

“It’s not that companies are giving up on China, it’s just that we are beginning to see other countries emerging as a serious competitor to China,” Eskelund said Friday.

The survey report said “China’s allure as a top investment destination is fading” and warned that companies will pursue opportunities elsewhere unless there are improvements in the business environment.

The proportion of companies that are optimistic about expanding their China business this year fell to about one-third, down from more than half in 2023. Only 15% were optimistic about profit growth.

More than half expect to cut costs in China this year, including 26% who plan to reduce the size of their staffs — which the report said "will further increase the pressure on an already strained job market.”


ECB Set Scene for June Rate Cut at Last Meeting

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
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ECB Set Scene for June Rate Cut at Last Meeting

A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Heiko Becker/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights

Euro zone inflation remains on track to fall back to 2% next year, so European Central Bank policymakers will likely start cutting interest rates from a record high in June, the account of their April meeting showed on Friday.

The ECB left interest rates unchanged last month but made clear that its next move will be a cut, most likely on June 6, provided wage and inflation data stay on their current, relatively benign path.

"It was seen as plausible that the Governing Council would be in a position to start easing monetary policy restriction at the June," the ECB said in the account of the April 10-11 meeting.

Policymakers appeared so confident about the outlook that some even made the case to start easing in April, a suggestion eventually overruled by a wide majority, who argued for patience until more wage and price data came in.

The few dissenters argued, as ECB President Christine Lagarde described last month, that ECB rates will continue to restrict the economy even after an initial cut, so past policy tightening will continue to work through the economy.

Speaking in the weeks since the April meeting, policymakers have confirmed that the June 6 cut is all but a done deal but the rate path beyond that is uncertain, given inflation volatility and a possible delay by the US Federal Reserve to its own rate cuts.

Most, however, argue that June will not be a singular, one-off cut, even if the timing for further moves should not be predetermined in advance, to give policymakers flexibility in the case of abrupt changes in economic conditions.

In another small shift in the bank's message, policymakers now see the cost of undershooting the inflation target on a par with overshooting, a reversal for many who argued that too rapid price growth was the bigger risk.

"The risk of undershooting the inflation target and eventually having to pay too high a price in terms of declining activity was now seen as being at least as high as the risk of acting too early and overshooting the target over the medium term," the ECB added.

Markets now see up to three rate cuts this year, or two beyond June, most likely in September and December, when the ECB also publishes new economic projections.

Euro zone inflation held steady at 2.4% last month and is expected to oscillate around this level for the rest of the year before easing back to the ECB's 2% target in 2025.

Policymakers emphasized throughout the account that incoming data kept confirming the bank's own projections, which was increasing the ECB's confidence in the quality of forecasts after a few bumpy years when these figures were wide of the mark.

While the ECB has publicly declared that policy was not dependent on Fed moves, decisions taken by the world's biggest central bank impact financing conditions around the globe, limiting the ECB's freedom since a widening rate differential weakens the euro and pushes up imported inflation.


Gold Set for Best Week in Five

Production of gold at Novosibirsk precious metals plant·Reuters
Production of gold at Novosibirsk precious metals plant·Reuters
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Gold Set for Best Week in Five

Production of gold at Novosibirsk precious metals plant·Reuters
Production of gold at Novosibirsk precious metals plant·Reuters

Gold prices climbed on Friday, en route to their best week in five, with zero-yield bullion building on momentum fuelled by weaker US jobs data this week that reinforced expectations for interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold rose 1% to $2,369.49 per ounce by 2:02 p.m. ET (1802 GMT).

US gold futures for June delivery settled 1.5% higher to $2,375.00 per ounce, Reuters reported.

Gold gained more than 1% on Thursday after data showed a bigger-than-expected rise in weekly claims for state unemployment benefits.

The surge in gold buying is mostly technically driven, but last week's payroll data and Thursday's initial unemployment claims data are lending support, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.

"Concerns about the employment situation are oftentimes the first crack in the economy and could pull forward the Fed's first interest rate cut," Streible added.

Financial markets expect the US central bank to start easing its cycle in September.

Lower interest rates generally tend to boost the appeal of bullion since it pays no interest.

Investors are now looking forward to the US producer price index and consumer price index data due next week, both of which could significantly impact gold and silver prices.

"If we get hot inflation or even warm inflation data next week, that's going to throw cold water on any notions that the Fed might be able to cut interest rates as soon as September," said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst with Kitco.

Meanwhile, near-record domestic prices stifled demand for physical gold in India, the world's second-biggest consumer, during a key festival.

Spot silver fell 0.2% to $28.27 per ounce, while spot platinum rose 1.9% to $997.40 per ounce and spot palladium gained 1.1% to $977.75 per ounce.